A Democratic China: The big dream and how you can help

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Yesterday, I presented a future that half of the world fears and half eagerly anticipates, a future in which China dominates the world both politically and economically. Today I will talk a little about what our options are in response to this huge change. While there are many goals we could choose in relation to China, I believe that democracy is a necessary first step that will make possible other desirable goals, such as a pursuit of human rights and basic freedoms, better economic opportunity for the under-privileged, and a cleaner and safer environment. As I mentioned yesterday, this affects not only China but also touches every person on earth. So, today I will be focusing primarily on ways to bring democracy and freedom to China.

For those who approve of China’s current government and are applauding it’s rise, let me just mention that even the best systems have room for improvement. I would love to have you along for the conversation. Together we can make China even better.

To those of you who would like to see a change in China, we must first deal with the fact that a large majority of the population prefer the government that they have. We must deal with a natural loyalty to what is familiar, a system of education that encourages intense nationalism, and a natural resentment of anyone or any nation that tries to force their culture on another. Any proposed solution that does not address these issues is doomed for failure from the start.

Keeping these two ideas in mind let us look at a few strategies proposed by various groups in the West.

Strategy One – Starve them into submission: This strategy seems to be popular among the most outspoken members of society. If someone does wrong they should be punished. What better way to punish an evil government than to deny them the opportunity to tax your trade with that country. And, who knows? Maybe the people will get hungry and decide they do not like their government any more. It works in America. We always take credit when the market is up and blame the government when it comes back down. But will it work for China?

In theory, this sounds like it should work, but in practice it has not. Cuba, North Korea, and many others have survived sanctions for a very long time and have even become more hardened because of it. Sanctions always hit the poor and weak the hardest, leaving the powerful and wealthy, the controllers of the government, untouched.

The only way sanctions could work is if they were sudden enough to shock the nation into extreme action in an already unstable environment. We really do not want to risk starting another civil war in China. Sudden and radical change in China could result in hundreds of millions of people getting killed, and the last civil war just moved China from one authoritarian government to another.

Remember also that the government controls the media, and cutting off trade would simply be explained as an attack on China and might even trigger a military response. It would also cut off our only line of communication with one-sixth of the world population.

Besides the high probability that attempting this with China would not work, it would also cripple the US and Europe as we are now quite dependent on Chinese products and capital. As the old saying goes, “this is like cutting off your nose to spite your face.”

Strategy two: Use political pressure, sometimes accompanied by a threat or actual use of force: Political pressure actually works. Thanks to China wanting to be part of the WTO and to host the Olympics, they have responded to at least some of the “requests” made by other nations. As the most powerful nation on Earth, it only makes sense that America should be using its power to establish a democratic empire around the world. Or, does it?

One problem with this strategy is that for every concession China makes, they find two other ways to suppress freedom. Political pressure does not work against a country that has learned to respond positively in public and then privately run in the opposite direction. The second problem is that China is growing fast and will soon be in a position to ignore the demands of other nations. They already hold more power than most people realize.

In America, we see strikers winning against powerful organizations. We see one man taking on a huge corporation and winning. We focus on the power of the individual, we start to think that David will always defeat the Giant. We forget that those strikers and those individuals were successful because of the protection and assistance of a much more powerful force – a nation filled with people determined not to let the little guy get bullied. China is rapidly approaching the point where they no longer have to bow to the wishes of the decaying West. At that point those with little power will have no defender.

A third problem is that the Chinese highly value their pride. Saving face is something that is universally important, but it is especially important to the Chinese. The harder we push the less they will be able to give without losing face. Political pressure in this environment is actually counter-productive. Because of this, political pressure is the most dangerous of the options available, and yet if used correctly, is an important part of the solution.

Strategy three: Isolate ourselves and let them do whatever they want. They are a sovereign nation and so are we. There is an ocean between us (deserts and mountains in Europe’s case). What they do there is their own business. Or, is it?

I am not even going to talk about moral responsibility and such, because people who make this suggestion consider national sovereignty to be a higher value than human rights blather. Instead, lets look at the practical implications of this approach.

First, if we leave China alone, will they leave us alone? China has given every indication of aspiring to world domination. Also, they own billions of dollars of US debt and reserves. They are not going to let us just walk away from that debt. They could easily buy California and France, setup a military presence, and force us to re-open our markets to their business people like Commodore Perry did in Japan 150 years ago.

Second, America and the rest of the nations in the West lack the strength to act as sovereign nations now. They lack strength militarily, economically and emotionally to be able to make it on their own. It would take a united world effort to isolate China which would take us back to strategy one which is not quite what those suggesting strategy three have in mind.

A closely related idea is to let them do what they want in their own sovereign nation and continue to fund the killing and illegal (even by their laws) imprisonment through trade that enriches party members. The only problem I see with this is that the world is getting smaller and what we allow in one nation will eventually be done where we live, and I guess that would even be fine if you plan to join the World Wide Communist Party. That goes back to yesterday’s topic of why democracy is important.

Strategy four: Find ways to communicate with Chinese leadership about the benefits they personally could enjoy by adopting democracy. If the Communist Leadership sees that democracy is a better way to achieve their goals they will switch. The current leadership is not loyal to ideas. They are loyal to their own self-interests. But, is democracy the best option for the current leaders and can anyone demonstrate this to them?

First lets look at some benefits:

1. Leaders of democratic nations experience much longer and more enjoyable retirements than their dictatorial counterparts. Leaders in an authoritarian government, especially those close to the top, tend to get shot shortly before retirement.
2. At least some democratic leaders are genuinely loved by their people. If you do not let people say what they really think, you will never know whether you are really liked or not, and few dictators are liked anyway.
3. Democratic leaders at least have a chance at a good legacy in the history books. As a dictator, you may be treated with respect while you are still in power but after your death the historians will tear you to shreds.
4. The more democratic you are and the more you support human rights, the bigger your market will be. There are still thousands who refuse to buy from China while it allows sweat-shops and punishes people for trying to make things better. Gaining the moral high ground opens doors of opportunity that China can only dream about now.
5. Giving people a chance to choose their leaders increases loyalty and obedience to the laws, which frees the thought police to form a Chinese Madison Avenue.

And there are several more, but this at least establishes the idea that democracy has it is advantages, even for a former dictator. It is possible that they know this and are just trying to find the best way to make the transition. By focusing on communicating the benefits of democracy without trying to force them to change, we give them a chance to make the decision on their own, which allows them to save face. The current leadership did not choose this form of government. They inherited it, so they may not mind changing it a bit.

So we know that switching to Democracy would be in the best interest of the current CCP leadership, and have reason to believe that they might be open to the change. The only question left is, “Who is going to be brave enough to spend hours, months, or even years to win each leader over to the idea, and help them develop a plan for transition?”

Will you?

Or will you at least help those who are willing?

Related posts:

1. Why I Joined Caring for China
2. A peaceful transition in China
3. What It Will Take to Transform China – By Xu Wenli
4. Draft: Caring for China – Call to Action
5. Absolute power in the People's Republic of China